Monitoring the Future: A 50-Year Lens on Youth Substance Use

Since 1975, the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey—conducted annually by the University of Michigan and funded by NIDA/NIH—has tracked drug and alcohol use among U.S. adolescents in grades 8, 10, and 12 nida.nih.gov+10nida.nih.gov+10en.wikipedia.org+10. The survey collects data on lifetime, past-year, and past-month use, along with attitudes, perceived harm, and availability en.wikipedia.org+6nida.nih.gov+6nida.nih.gov+6.

1. Substance Use Remains Historically Low

• Post-pandemic stability: Following a sharp decline between 2020–2021, adolescent drug use has held steady at reduced levels through 2023 and into 2024 nida.nih.gov+1nida.nih.gov+1.
• Alcohol: 2024 saw stable or declining alcohol use—12th‑grade: 41.7% (down from 45.7% in 2023); 10th‑grade: 26.1% (vs. 30.6%) nida.nih.gov.
• Nicotine vaping: Consistent rates for 8th and 12th grades (9.6% and 21.0%), with a decline in 10th grade (15.4% vs. 17.6%) nida.nih.gov+2nida.nih.gov+2nida.nih.gov+2.
• Cannabis: Slight dip among 12th graders (25.8% vs. 29.0%), flat among younger grades nida.nih.gov+2nida.nih.gov+2nida.nih.gov+2.
• New addition—Delta‑8‑THC: Measured for the first time in 2024—eighth graders: 2.9%, tenth graders: 7.9%; twelfth graders: 12.3% nida.nih.gov+1nida.nih.gov+1.

2. Decline in Other Illicit Drugs

• Adolescents report reduced use of cocaine, heroin, prescription opioid misuse, and “narcotics other than heroin”—12th‑grade narcotic use dropped to 0.6%, the lowest since reporting began nida.nih.gov+3nida.nih.gov+3nida.nih.gov+3.

3. Abstinence on the Rise

• 30‑day abstention from alcohol, nicotine, and marijuana is high—eighth graders: 89.5%; 10th-grade: 80.2% (up from 76.9% in 2023); 12th-grade: 67.1% (from 62.6%) nida.nih.gov+1nida.nih.gov+1.

4. Long‑Term Perspective: The 2021 Drop

• In 2021, MTF reported the most significant single‑year drop in illicit drug use since 1975 nida.nih.gov+8nida.nih.gov+8nida.nih.gov+8—a pivotal turning point that set the stage for ongoing lower rates.

5. Adults Show Different Trends

• MTF’s panel component follows graduates into adulthood. Among 19–30-year-olds, cannabis and nicotine vaping hit all-time highs in 2023, while 35–50-year-olds saw record usage of marijuana, hallucinogens, and binge drinking in 2022 nida.nih.gov+1nida.nih.gov+1.

What Lies Ahead?

• Why is teen use low? Experts highlight pandemic disruptions, delayed social entry, increased disapproval, and reduced availability as contributing factors nida.nih.gov+1nida.nih.gov+1.
• Continued risks: Despite lower use rates, accidental overdose deaths—especially from illicit fentanyl—remain elevated among teens, signalling danger even as prevalence shrinks nida.nih.gov.
• A model to follow: MTF’s evolving framework helps stakeholders tailor prevention, inform education, and shape policy as new substances (like Delta‑8, cannabis vaping) enter the scene.

Why Monitoring the Future Matters

• Longitudinal insight: Over 50 years of data enables trend analysis and early detection of shifts.
• Age‑span reach: Captures behavioral evolution from adolescence (grades 8–12) into adult life.
• Policy & prevention impact: Findings inform public health campaigns, school efforts, adolescent counseling, and law enforcement strategies.

Final Thoughts

The MTF survey reveals a hopeful, sustained decline in adolescent substance use—a public health milestone. Yet, the persistence of overdose risks and the rise of new substances highlight the need for vigilance. As youth navigate post-pandemic life, MTF shines as an indispensable tool for guiding timely, data-driven responses.

Stay informed: The 2024 MTF report was released in December 2024—visit NIDA’s site for comprehensive data tables and detailed analysis .

Calling all parents, educators, and policymakers: Use these insights to reinforce prevention efforts, especially around new substances, mental health support, and fentanyl awareness.